We live in interesting times. Not so long ago it was rather difficult, if not impossible to say, to imagine that a «world global leader with the largest economy» would ask a «gas station country with an economy torn to shreds» for a summit, and the latter would without much haste decide whether to agree or refuse. However, this is exactly what happened. Not least due to the fact that the given characteristics are very small from reality.
Years of frenzied hateful anti-Russian propaganda, endless streams of outright fakes, tons of lies and slander have led the United States to drive itself into the trap of «no other choice». The option to negotiate and find a compromise has become almost impracticable. The mad demonization of Russia and its leader for many years has done its job. Through the diligent efforts of American propaganda for its elites, there is no doubt that Lucifer has found his next incarnation in the person of Vladimir Putin. And how can you come to an agreement with the very devil of hell? It’s unthinkable. Inadmissible. Unacceptable.
This is about a very severe, pathological form of xenophobia. In a recent article, ALAFF has already quoted the words of the Russian writer and mystic Daniil Andreyev, but they are so accurate and relevant that it would not be superfluous to quote again:
«The citizens of the United States will be expected to remember that they call themselves Christians and that Christianity is incompatible with a savage hate for any race, blacks included».
Savage hate. It is on this that the US policy towards both Russia and many other countries is based. And this is precisely the fundamental principle of the postulate of «American exceptionalism», which is Nazi in nature. By the way, notice how more than 70 years ago the Russian mystic clearly saw the problem of racial intolerance in the United States, which is now expressed in the emergence of BLM phenomenon.
The end of 2020 was a landmark moment. The ultraliberal sect, which came (returned) to power as a result of a coup d’etat in the United States, managed(!) in just a few months to bring the situation in the world to the brink of a global war. Spurred on by its American masters, the Ukrainian Nazi junta was ready to start military operations on the border with the Russian Federation last spring. In other words, the US Democratic Party has come to the stage of its chronic anti-Russian course, when only war could be the next step of escalation. A real war between the US and Russia.
For a number of reasons, the American side was not ready for this. The presence of the latest weapons in the Russian Federation and an open demonstration of readiness for war played a role — the stern Shoigu promptly deployed troops to the western borders of Russia, which made a proper impression. This is the fundamental difference — Russia was ready for war, the United States was not. The ultraliberal sect decided to retreat temporarily. In the spring of 2021, humanity escaped a great disaster.
For most sober observers, it is obvious that the trend in the development of Russia and China is upward, while that of the United States is downward. Losing in the global confrontation with both Russia and China (not both together, but each separately), the US leadership has chosen the worst possible scenario — confrontation with both countries at the same time. Someday it will be included in the encyclopedia «How Politics Should Not Be Done».
Vaguely realizing its inability to defeat both «authoritarian regimes» at the same time, the United States chose as a new tactic an attempt to temporarily «neutralize» Russia with a simultaneous all-encompassing attack on China. The implementation of this tactic began with a proposal to Russia to hold a summit meeting, which, of course, looked caricatured against the background of Biden’s recent statements about the «killer» Putin. The caricature reached grotesque forms when, a couple of days after the proposal for the summit, Biden introduced another package of sanctions against the Russian Federation.
By the very fact of such an offer to meet, the United States already bears a fair share of the costs due to the aforementioned «no other choice» trap. In the end, if you agree to meet with the fiend of hell, and you yourself ask for this meeting, then you are not demonstrating strength and authority at all. Rather, the opposite is true.
Anyway, at the last moment having taken a step back from the brink of war, to which the ultraliberal sect approached in the spring, its immediate task was to get the Russian side to agree to a meeting. To this end, the United States began to generate the so-called signals designed to convince Russia of the desire of the Americans to reduce the level of escalation.
As a result of the spring aggravation in Donbass, Ukrainian slaves were ordered to retreat and forget (for a while) about their desire to attack the rebellious republics. In the case of the cyberattack on the operator of the Colonial Pipeline, the usual scenario of «Russian hackers» (evident at any other time) did not actively pedalize, and after the cyberattack on the meat company JBS, «Moscow’s fault», again, was not at all obvious. In addition, when the Ryanair plane landed in Minsk after the threat of a bomb planted on board, and the closest US ally, Great Britain, instantly found the «hand of the Kremlin» and began to demand new sanctions, the American side unexpectedly announced that it did not see Russia’s involvement in the incident. Yes, at any other time, the United States would be the first to blame Moscow, but now the Americans have flatly refused (and forbade their allies) to look for a Russian trace in the incident.
On top of that, the United States announced its intention not to impose new sanctions against Nord Stream-2, so as not to spoil relations with Germany. Let us also not forget the persecution in Ukraine of the opposition politician V. Medvedchuk, who is characterized by a number of media outlets as «a friend of Putin». Claims were made against Medvedchuk (their absurdity is not even worth discussing), but he was not thrown into a prison cell, but placed under house arrest. In general, his case has been put on pause so far, for obvious reasons. In the end, one cannot fail to note the forced call of the sleepy Joe to the head of his Ukrainian colony. Initially, the American side quite definitely stated that it was not going to talk and meet with the Ukrainian president before meeting with Putin, but Zelensky’s hysterical whims (precisely about the extreme need to meet before the Putin-Biden summit), who again began to pull troops to the Russian borders, practically forced Biden to call Ukrainian clown and order to shut up. Zelensky was told not to fuss, to sit quietly and not to blather ahead of time. As a reward, an illusory opportunity for an obliging Ukrainian servant to come to Washington in July to meet his beloved overlord was planned. One can only guess how difficult it is for the Ukrainian aborigines to control and restrain themselves.
A striking evidence of this is the shocking incident on June 11, when, against the background of the current ceasefire, a group of Ukrainian saboteurs entered the territory of the observation post of the People’s Militia of the LPR and savagely killed five soldiers. Four militiamen were shot at point-blank range in the head, and a fifth soldier was also shot in the head by a Ukrainian sniper. In connection with the incident, the head of the republic L.I. Pasechnik even interrupted his visit to Russia and was forced to return, and June 14 was declared a day of mourning in the LPR. You can’t go wrong if you say that is usually done after terrorist attacks. The operation of the Ukrainian saboteurs was a barbaric terrorist attack carried out with the tacit approval of Western patrons. More than 1.5 thousand residents of the front-line city took part in the farewell ceremony for the fallen defenders of the Luhansk People’s Republic.
Well, the above was intended to testify to the «good intentions» of the United States ahead of the summit with Putin. The Russian side gave its consent to the meeting the Americans needed, largely proceeding from their own interests (the demonstrative «peaceful signals» of the Americans, of course, made their contribution, but were not at all the main factor). Ensuring global security has been and remains one of the priorities of the Russian state. Because of this, you are forced to talk with those towards whom you would not even look in ordinary life. At the same time, over the past couple of months, Russia has also sent signals to external players, and they were by no means in favor of the Americans. Rather, the opposite is true.
Just a few days after Biden called Putin in mid-April and offered to hold a meeting, sensational details of the uncovered conspiracy to liquidate President Lukashenko of Belarus and the involvement of the American side became known. The FSB of the Russian Federation has published an official statement on this matter. And a few days later, President Putin gave his assessment of what had happened in his annual message to the Federal Assembly, where he said the following:
«Those behind provocations that threaten the core interests of our security will regret what they have done in a way they have not regretted anything for a long time».
Noticing in passing that «Russia’s response will be asymmetrical, swift and tough».
Putin’s speech at the May 9 parade, in particular, its final part, was vividly evidence of the attitude towards Western partners:
«It has been almost 100 years since the time when the abominable Nazi beast was gaining insolence and predatory strength in Central Europe. The slogans of racial and ethnic supremacy, anti-Semitism and Russophobia were becoming more and more cynical. Agreements designed to stop the landslide towards a world war were easily broken off.
History demands that we learn from it. Unfortunately, attempts are made to deploy a large part of Nazi ideology and the ideas of those who were obsessed with the delusional theory of their own supremacy. This ideology is not only supported by radicals and international terrorist groups of all kinds».
The President of Russia drew quite obvious analogies, and there is no need to further explain who he had in mind. Those who wanted understood everything.
On May 13, the Russian government approved a long-needed list of unfriendly states, which included the United States and the Czech Republic. Moreover, the brevity of the list only emphasizes the marginality (or, if you will, toxicity) of the countries represented. Even Poland, which is extremely hostile to Russia, did not make it to the list, as did the hate-filled Ukraine with its completely inadequate authorities. From now on, the Czech diplomatic mission is allowed to employ only 19 Russian workers and citizens of other states living in Russia, while the American mission — not a single one(!).
At the end of May, at a meeting with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and representatives of the defense industry, the Russian president announced that the newest air defense system S-500, the tests of which are already being successfully completed, will soon go to the troops. Do you want to talk to Russia from a position of strength? Well, try it.
On June 3, shortly after the start of SPIEF-2021, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that Russia would completely abandon the dollar as part of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) within a month. Yuan, gold and euro will be preferred. The share of the dollar will be 0%(!). An important point noted by a number of experts is that it is obvious that the decision to break with the dollar in the NWF was made at the highest level in the Kremlin, not in the Ministry of Finance — after all, just a few months ago Russia invested billions in American currency and did not see this as a problem.
On June 9, the Moscow City Court issued a long-awaited (and desired by the country’s population) decision recognizing the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) headed by Navalny and Navalny’s headquarters as extremist organizations, with all the ensuing consequences. The most precious henchman of the Western intelligence services received a black mark that makes all his activities toxic, as well as all people who are somehow involved in it. Note that the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office demanded to recognize the FBK and Navalny’s headquarters as extremist organizations on April 16, i.e. only a few days after Biden’s «conciliatory» call with his proposal to hold a summit.
On June 10, a week before the summit, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed an order to terminate the memorandum between Russia and the United States «On Understanding With regard to Open Land». From now on, American diplomats will be obliged to notify the Russian Foreign Ministry about long-distance trips across the territory of the Russian Federation.
Specific measures demonstrating the general disposition of the Russian leadership to interact with American partners. The aim of the latter is to try to distance Russia and China from each other, to lower the high level of their interaction and mutual understanding. Ideally, it would completely «neutralize» Russia’s support for Chinese policy and personally for Xi Jingping, so that the United States could be left alone with China. At the upcoming summit, the American side will probe the ground for such «tempting offers» to Russia.
China, clearly understanding the Americans’ play, publicly expressed some concern over the prospect of «cooling relations» with Russia. Thus, the official government newspaper Global Times (owned by the CPC) published a number of articles with very frank and unambiguous allusions. For example, the May 26 editorial «China-Russia ties assure global strategic balance» contained the following wording:
«The China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era is stable, and assured and sees no restricted area or upper limit. The relationship between China and Russia is not only at its best, but has also reached the highest level of equal strategic cooperation between major countries in the world. No plot by any force can weaken the current China-Russian relations«.
«The back-to-back strategic reliance of China and Russia, as well as their intertwined interests, are becoming so increasingly valuable that no equivalent in the world can be exchanged for it«.
«The US will not allow China to grow stronger, while it will continue to suppress Russia in regions where the latter traditionally has influence. It still will see Russia’s military power as a major concern. But no kind of improvement of relations will make Beijing and Moscow drop their guard against Washington’s attempts to drive a wedge between China and Russia«.
And perhaps most importantly
«But if the US and its allies pile more pressure than normal on either China or Russia, they will definitely witness that the other country is standing with the oppressed country. And the heavier the pressure, the more steadfast the support from the other country will be«.
The last quote is extremely important, because it contains a hint of the coming tectonic shifts in geopolitics in the coming years. We are talking about the restoration of China’s control over Taiwan, which the United States and its allies are so afraid of. The attempt to accuse China of creating COVID is precisely due to this.
As if by magic, the old «conspiracy theories about the artificial origin of the virus» (this is how it was presented when Trump talked about it), through the efforts of the US Democratic Party regaining power, turned into «a compelling scientific hypothesis worthy of attention». And now the obedient Facebook, after the order of the American Politburo, cancels its own decision to ban/delete all messages, where users simply admitted the idea of the laboratory origin of COVID. Wow, who would have thought! Most importantly, do not forget about the freedom and independence of social networks. Yep.
After receiving instructions from Sharkhan, the obedient Tabaki diligently declared the possibility that the virus was artificially created (read, in a Chinese laboratory). As expected, pressure was also exerted on WHO, as a result of which its head, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, stated at the G7 summit that the version of laboratory origin of COVID-19 cannot be ruled out, accusing China of insufficient «transparency» at the initial stage of the investigation of the problem. Oh, by the way, you can not even doubt the conclusions of the American intelligence about the origin of the virus.
As Russian Sinologist Nikolai Vavilov rightly notes, the ultimate goal of all these US actions is to accuse the Chinese leadership, primarily Xi Jingping personally, of creating weapons of mass destruction (COVID virus as a biological weapon). Essentially the same thing that was done with regard to Saddam Hussein. Thus, the United States will try to significantly discredit and isolate China in the international arena, disrupt its global economic projects, and also prevent Xi Jingping’s nomination for a new term in 2022. By the way, the issue of the «Uyghur genocide» lies in the same plane. In addition, if «China’s fault» in the creation and distribution of COVID is «proven» (this will undoubtedly happen in the near future), then this will be designed to frustrate the PRC’s goals of regaining full control over Taiwan. We are talking about a large-scale military operation of the PRC army in the South China Sea, preparations for which are already underway.
One of the possible serious consequences for China is the reaction of the international community. If (more precisely, when) the PRC starts an operation to return Taiwan, the United States will do everything possible to maximize the international isolation of China. A maritime, transport, energy blockade, significant economic sanctions, a lowering of the level of diplomatic relations with a number of countries (Western in the first place), a number of radical measures within the UN are quite likely. Military actions of the US coalition against the PRC are not excluded either. In such conditions, the support of Russia, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, becomes paramount — both political support and another kind, up to military support. The Russian rear will have to become a strong support for the PRC for a certain period of time.
One more look at the last quote from the Global Times’s article makes it possible to understand all its importance. This is not about the fact that Russia should loudly say «yes, we are with you!» to all of China’s actions. Russia must remain calm and neutral (read, not join the Western anti-Chinese camp) — that is, behave in the same way as China towards Russia after the return of Crimea. China studied the Russian experience of returning Crimea in the most thorough way and drew certain conclusions. One of them is that nothing is impossible, and the prospect of successfully countering the reaction of the West is quite real. Yes, for some time the country’s economy will undergo severe tests, but the difficulties are not critical and can be overcome over time. Therefore, the operation to return Taiwan is a practical rather than theoretical task for the PRC.
That is why it is so necessary for the United States to distance Russia from China and drive a wedge into their relationship. China should be deprived of a strong Russian rear. At the upcoming summit, Biden will, among other things, try to «test» Putin’s willingness to cool off with China. But the above signals from Russia towards the United States (and the West in general) quite definitely characterize the futility of such intentions of sleepy Joe.
On the other hand, a number of signals concerned Russia’s Chinese partners as well. The intention of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation to significantly increase the share of the yuan in the NWF (against the background of a complete rejection of the dollar) has already been mentioned above. In addition, a number of other signals indicated a course for further rapprochement with China.
On June 2, the head of the Rostec corporation, Sergei Chemezov, spoke about plans to replace Australian coal in the Chinese market. Before the deterioration of relations, Australia was the main supplier of coal to the Chinese market. Now Russia wants to take the Australian share, it is planned to replace up to 70% of supplies. For this purpose, the expansion of the throughput capacity of the BAM and TSR is being planned. Concrete measures in this direction are already being taken. Thus, the second branch of the BAM will be built by the military (by Putin’s decision), and recently a new special equipment for laying rails was demonstrated. It seems that Russia is serious.
On June 9, the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Olga Skorobogatova, at a round table in the State Duma, announced the technical readiness for integration with the Chinese analogue of SWIFT (China International Payments System, CIPS). According to her, the ability to combine the Russian SWIFT and CIPS through the gateway has already been successfully tested. According to Skorobogatova, it is important that now both the Chinese side and the Russian side are guided by this gateway.
Important words were said by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation at the last international forum «Primakov Readings». In particular, Lavrov stated the following:
«Our unconditional priorities include the strengthening of our comprehensive interaction with China«.
By the way, at the beginning of his speech, Lavrov referred to a Chinese saying. Small detail, but characteristic.
Most recently, the Russian Ambassador to China, Andrey Denisov, answered a number of questions from the Global Times. The title of the article is noteworthy — Chinese interviewers directly asked the ambassador which side Russia would take in the event of a war between the PRC and the United States. The headline is usually intended to reflect the most important thing in the article, show the essence in a few words. Thus we can draw the appropriate conclusions. Within the framework of the PRC’s plans to return Taiwan and the US reaction to this, a direct question posed to the Russian ambassador is more than relevant for the Chinese side.
Answering a question from correspondents about Biden’s intentions at the summit to «distance» Russia from China, Ambassador Denisov replied (quote): «It can’t happen. I think we’re smarter than what the Americans think». And answering the main question — which side will Russia take in the armed conflict between China and the United States, the ambassador said:
«There will be no answer to this question because I am convinced that there will be no armed conflict between China and the US, just as there will be no armed conflict between Russia and the US, because such a conflict would exterminate all mankind, and then there would be no point in taking sides. However, if you are asking about the judgment of the international situation and major issues, then Russia’s position is clearly much closer to China’s«.
«You know, I have met certain Uyghurs. It’s always possible to find individuals who criticise the central authorities. I have met Uyghurs on my trips to China, and I assure you at the very least what I heard with my own ears, that on the whole they welcome the policies of the Chinese authorities in this area».
In addition, Vladimir Putin said that Russia does not believe that China poses a threat to the country:
«We do not believe that China is a threat to us. That’s one. China is a friendly nation. It has not declared us an enemy, as the United States has done».
In other words, Russia has quite clearly demonstrated the vector of its course towards China. This vector is stable and not subject to momentary conjuncture. Relations between the two countries are indeed at a very high level and continue to grow.
In early April, the construction of a cable car from Russia to China across the Amur River was started. The length will be almost 1 km, the cable car will connect the Russian city of Blagoveshchensk and the Chinese city of Heihe. This will be the world’s first international (cross-border) cable car. A unique project.
On May 19, Putin and Xi took part in the launch of the construction of new nuclear power plants in China, being built by the Russian nuclear giant Rosatom. In total, four units will be built at the sites of two nuclear power plants.
On May 22, a new logistics route was launched — trains with refrigerated containers began to run between the capital of Russia and Chinese Qingdao. These are trains consisting of second-generation self-contained refrigerated containers that will be used to deliver food. The planned volume of traffic on this route is up to 50 thousand tons of cargo per year.
On June 4, the President of Tatarstan (one of the most developed regions of the Russian Federation) Rustam Minnikhanov in Naberezhnye Chelny took part in laying the first stone in the foundation of a smart factory of the Chinese company Haier, which is one of the largest investors operating in Russia. Haier’s smart factory project includes three factories: refrigeration equipment, freezing equipment and commercial chest freezers. The project is fully funded by Haier. Similar two factories are already operating in the PRC. It is important that the Chinese company is ready to transfer technology to Russia, in particular, to the Republic of Tatarstan.
These are just a few recent examples. Thus, the futility of attempts to drag Russia into the anti-Chinese camp will increase the US confrontation with China. The plots of the «Uyghur genocide» and the «virus from the Wuhan laboratory» will be actively developed (the latter especially). At the end of May, Biden instructed the special services to check the version of the laboratory origin of COVID-19, giving 90 days for this. In fact, this is a 90-day ultimatum to Xi Jingping. That is, before the end of August, China will have to make significant concessions to the United States, otherwise the «correct» conclusion of American intelligence about the origin of COVID and the corresponding consequences for the PRC will follow.
Over the summer, pressure on the PRC over the origins of COVID will intensify to help the Chinese leadership make «the right decision» (read, capitulate to the United States). In this case, American intelligence will provide a detailed report (traditionally «trustworthy»), which will say that there is no reason to suspect the PRC of a leak from the laboratory. But if the Chinese leadership chooses to resist, it is quite possible that we will eventually witness Caribbean Crisis 2.0. After all, the stakes are too high and time is not on the US side.
P.S. Regarding the possible outcome of the summit. It cannot be ruled out that the United States will try to use the so-called «misinterpretation» trick (after all, we have just witnessed how it worked following a conversation between sleepy Joe and Zelensky). For example, during the approach to the press, a fairly general phrase will be said, something like «The United States and Russia have agreed on the need to establish the origin of COVID». After all, Russia does not deny the importance of determining the nature of the virus. But the difference, as always, is in the nuances. In the interpretation of the United States, such a phrase means an indirect allusion to the «guilt of China», while Russia implies only accurate scientific research, without any politicization. Thus, if such a phrase were spoken, it would be used by American propaganda as a way to raise doubts among the PRC about the loyalty of its Russian ally. By the way, it is not at all necessary that this will happen at the summit — some time later, the NYT or WSJ (major conductors of American propaganda) may publish an ambiguous article with «information from an anonymous source familiar with the course of the negotiations». We can expect anything.
With regard to purely Russian-American relations, a relative improvement in diplomatic relations (diplomatic property, the composition of diplomatic missions, some weakening of mutual sanctions restrictions, etc.), or a mutual exchange of detainees, is quite possible. Of course, if the Americans do not make the ridiculous mistake that they made in negotiations with China in Alaska.