Hello dear listeners. Today we will talk about such a very controversial issue as the situation in Xinjiang. You know that the world community, practically all Western countries are putting pressure on China, accusing it of genocide, personally accusing Xi Jinping and people loyal to Xi Jinping. Suffice it to recall Joe Biden’s claims that Xi Jinping is a thug with one million Uyghurs in labor camps.
This situation requires an objective analysis in order to really understand whether there is genocide in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR), and why the West is exerting such pressure on China right now, especially on the Xinjiang issue, why China needs Xinjiang and why the West may possibly have an independent Xinjiang. All this needs to be dealt with objectively, relying on facts and correctly interpreting statements.
Indeed, the Xinjiang issue is a controversial story, and indeed in the history of Xinjiang there was a large-scale genocide when more than 250 years ago the Manchu-Chinese troops captured Xinjiang, which was previously supported by the Russian Empire. By the way, [in times] when the Qing [dynasty] captured China, Dzungaria was also supported by Peter the Great — this is a very important fact that should be borne in mind. So, when this happened 250 years ago, the then head of the Dzungar Khanate, Amursana, decided to use the Manchurian-Chinese troops in the internal political struggle, de facto to abandon Russia’s patronage over this territory. It ended very badly — with the fact that the Manchus and the Chinese invaded the territory of the Dzungar Khanate and destroyed — attention — 90% of the population. That is what genocide in the East is, a real genocide, when 90% of the population is destroyed — women, children, so that the reproduction of the Dzungars could not be ensured, the remnants of which migrated to Afghanistan, went into the service of the countries of Central Asia, and most of which, led by Khan Tseren, migrated to present Kalmykia. I.e. de facto [in those days] Russia saved the Dzungars from complete genocide by the Manchus and the Chinese. This is a fact that should not be forgotten either.
Nevertheless, there really was a genocide in Central Asia, there was a genocide in Dzungaria, and of course the struggle for the existence of various peoples, various ethnic groups, including religious ones, is being waged for life and death. This region is very explosive and has a history of real genocide.
It should be understood: what is happening now in Xinjiang — is it a repetition of that story with the Dzungars? Although, of course, the Turkic-speaking Uyghurs are not really Dzungars, more precisely, not at all Dzungars, but it is also a Turkic ethnos, a Muslim ethnos that has a history of its statehood — there was the Uyghur Khaganate, part of the Turkic Khaganate. The Uyghurs have lived in this territory for more than 1000 years, [they] have a history of their own independent state, so to say that the Chinese and the Uyghurs are one and the same would be absolutely wrong. These are two very different people on the territory of the PRC, who are absolutely not alike, and there is friction between them.
So, is genocide of the Uyghur people taking place in Xinjiang? It is very important to clarify that Xinjiang is the largest region in China, more than 1,600,000 square kilometers, which is 16% of the territory of the PRC, but [at the same time] Xinjiang is inhabited by only 2% of the country’s population. The comparison suggests itself that de facto Xinjiang is something like Russian Yakutia. However, Xinjiang [for the PRC] is of much greater importance than Yakutia for the Russian Federation, although it is roughly comparable in terms of population and area. [Xinjiang is] A huge territory, sparsely populated, [there are] deserts, mountains and remote areas.
However, returning to the issue of genocide, let us answer the question whether the indigenous Uyghur population is shrinking and is it being assimilated by the Chinese population? Are the words spoken from the rostrum of the UN, from the podiums of the most advanced and authoritative Western media really true?
We have real statistics, and they are, to put it mildly, the exact opposite of what is called genocide. According to the latest data, from 2010 to 2018, the Uyghur population grew from 10 million to 12.7 million, i.e. by 2.7 million people, or, more importantly, proportionally by 25%. The Uyghur population of Xinjiang grew by a quarter between 2010 and 2018, while — attention — the Chinese population [of Xinjiang] in the same period grew by only ~200 thousand people — from 8.8 million to 9 million people, i.e. by about 2%. We know that China’s population growth was less than 1% in the latest 2020 census (obviously, the author is referring to the average annual growth, because the total population growth in China was 5.38% — ALAFF). I.e. the objective picture of the situation of the Uyghurs and the growth of their population is that the number of Uyghurs is growing — attention — 25 times faster than the Han Chinese on average in China and on average in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. The population of other Turkic-speaking national minorities in Xinjiang is also growing at the same rate.
For some reason, those who speak from the high rostrum [about the genocide] are silent about this statistics. Russia is a third party, we must objectively understand what is happening in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, how the population is growing or declining, and how much the Chinese population is growing. Obviously, those who criticize population growth appeal to the fact that the fertility of Uyghur families is declining — from 10% to 3%. Is it a lot or a little — fertility at 3%? Well, in Nigeria, with the highest fertility in the world, it is ~6% (apparently, the author inadvertently confused Nigeria with Niger, which is the leader in fertility rates with an indicator of almost 7% — ALAFF).
It turns out that Uyghur families multiplied more than in Nigeria in 2010, and began to reproduce 2 times less than in Nigeria, but at the same time 10, 20 or 30 times more than Chinese women. I.e. to say that this is genocide is not very objective, or it is a very strange genocide, as strange as the COVID epidemic. If the epidemic needs 10% [of cases on the planet], then COVID covers barely 2% of the world’s population. A very strange genocide, which is spoken about from the high tribunes, in the media, and with which the information space is filled.
Why is [Uyghur] fertility declining? Because urbanization is growing — Uighurs are moving to cities, getting higher education, becoming «white collars» and so on. I.e. fertility is decreasing due to the growth of the urban population of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, primarily due to the urbanization of the Uyghurs, exceeding 50% as of 2020. We must understand that with such a fertility rate of Uyghur women, by the end of the 21st century, most of the population of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region will be Uyghurs, they will be educated, and it seems to me that by the end of the 21st century, conditions will really be created for a qualitatively new political state of the Uyghur nation, to which it is now very actively moving. The entire demographic situation [in China] will change in favor of the Uyghurs, but clearly not now.
I must clarify that I am citing data from Chinese statistics. You have the right to disagree, refute me, give examples of alternative statistics. [I assume that] There are only [official] Chinese statistics. Maybe the Uighurs are being exterminated like 250 years ago, and you have facts of mass genocide, massacres, mass graves, and so on. I do not insist on Chinese statistics, I operate with that, that is.
Returning to the issue of genocide, which is a reduction of the people, nothing else, it should be noted that practically no one speaks from the high tribunes that the policy of «one family — one child» in China extends — attention — only to the Han population. I.e. if you are a national minority, it does not matter — Uyghur, Tibetan, Zhuang, Hui, etc., or even Russian, there is also such a national minority among the 56 nationalities of China, — you have the right to have an unlimited number of children. Uighurs, Tibetans, and Zhuangs are very actively using this right. The Chinese are terribly jealous of them that they are forbidden to give birth to children, while national minorities are allowed to give birth to an unlimited number of children. It is with this that such a high fertility and high reproduction rate of the Uyghur population is connected, which, I recall, is about 13 million people and continues to grow very actively — by about a quarter in a decade. We expect that in the next 20-30 years the Uyghur population will double in such a strange Chinese genocide.
Accordingly, to say that in Uyguristan, in Xinjiang there is a kind of genocide of the Uyghur population is, to put it mildly, not objective. Xinjiang’s population doubles every 20-30 years. There are conflicts, there are frictions, there is an attempt by a part of the Uyghur elite to declare independence, wider autonomy of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, possibly up to the secession from the PRC, there are huge groups of people who do not agree with the Chinese government, or, more precisely, with the power of the Uyghurs who are loyal to the PRC [authorities]. But it is impossible to say that there is genocide, the reduction of the Uyghur population.
An important argument [from critics of China] in favor for the [alleged] genocide is the existence of the re-education camps, concentration camps that Biden talks about, which all politicians in the US Congress talk about, and there is a bipartisan agreement on this issue — both Republicans and Democrats insist on genocide. So, they all speak of one million Muslim Uighur prisoners in Chinese concentration camps, which [the PRC authorities] hide. One million people are approximately 10% of the Uyghur population, or 5% of the total population of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. This is a huge number of people, which [the Chinese authorities] are hiding, people, who are being re-educated and in respect of whom various human rights violations are taking place.
Let’s turn to real sources of such information. How was this million calculated? It is very interesting (turned out that this is «the pinnacle of sociology and statistics», which is simply amazing). It is said that there are a huge number of people who are subjected to re-education, ideological indoctrination, i.e. when people actively professing Islam, the values of independent East Turkestan — their consciousness is indoctrinated towards more loyal to the PRC, using different methods (there are many articles on the Internet about this). However, the first data that told us about such a large-scale indoctrination, about special re-education camps, where, moreover, forced labor [of prisoners] is used, first appeared on the website of the opposition Chinese media, Radio Free Asia, led by the heroes of Tiananmen 1989, [who are] pro-American, loyal to the US Democratic Party. These Tiananmen heroes are leading this media, and there was a statement by an unnamed anonymous official in Kashgar. Kashgar is the center of the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan, banned in the Russian Federation, and not only in the Russian Federation — also in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and other countries, but already permitted in the United States on November 6, 2020.
So, a statement appeared on the Radio Free Asia website, or rather, not even a statement, but a link not of a certain official of the Kashgar administration, who stated that at least 120 thousand people are in re-education camps in Kashgar. After that, this figure (obtained according to the principle «at the bazaar in Kashgar, someone said something to someone about 120 thousand re-educated citizens of the XUAR») was not questioned.
Where did the million come from then? Some independent researchers from Taiwan and the United States went to Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and began to interview the population. Attention — [they began] to poll the population in each locality. They asked people: How many Uighurs do you think are being re-educated in your locality? In response, different numbers were named: someone said 8%, someone said 12%, and the average was 10%.
That is, for example, someone comes up to a cotton grower at a bazaar in Aksu and asks «How many Uighurs are being re-educated in your city?» He replies «Somewhere 7 or 8 percent are re-educated i think» (as in the well-known anecdote about a Georgian school — «Q: How much is 3×3? A: Well, somewhere seven or eight»). Then they approach the housewife in Kashgar and ask «How many Uighurs are being re-educated in your city?» She replies, «Well, maybe 10 or 12%». This is the kind of «sociology» that was applied to the calculation of such re-educated citizens. Again, this does not mean that there are none, it does not mean that there are few of them. It’s just that such a technique and «arithmetic» was applied.
As a result, it was calculated that an [arithmetically] average 10% of Uyghurs in each settlement are being re-educated, then they calculated 10% of the population at 10 million Uyghurs, and it turned out that 1 million Uyghurs are being re-educated in labor camps in Xinjiang. This is the kind of «arithmetic» that the US administration uses when recognizing the fact of the genocide of the Uyghur people. 10% is a fairly large amount, but they were calculated in this [frivolous] way.
How objective is it to consider that there are 1 million prisoners of the Uyghur Gulag? Of course, this does not mean that they do not exist. However, the data available about the converted special schools and boarding schools for extremist youth indicate that the actual number of such re-educated, indoctrinated citizens, is 10-20 times less. They exist. As is the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan. But we are not talking about a million people. At least they are 10-20 times smaller, these are much smaller scales, but they exist, and in large numbers. It cannot be said that this resistance movement [of East Turkestan] is absent, and that there is no religious extremism and an attempt at separatism in Xinjiang.
It is obvious that the West is trying to inflate this problem to astronomical proportions in order to bring charges against Xi Jingping of genocide of a huge people and put Xi Jingping in the dock along with Maummar Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein and Slobodan Milosevic. Such a goal is pursued, but for this it is necessary to inflate the figure very strongly, to inflate it 10-20 times stronger. Again, this does not deny the very fact that there are re-educated people. Indeed, there is this movement [of East Turkestan], and now we will talk about when it appeared.
Before talking about when the East Turkestan movement appeared, let us note that the Uighurs existed side by side with the Chinese for a very long time, for a thousand years. The Uighurs organized an independent state, or semi-independent state, with the support of the USSR. Once again, I draw your attention to the fact that it is Russia, the USSR that is the only real source that can provide some other political reality for Xinjiang, which makes the relations of the Uyghurs with Russia very important.
So, the Uighurs and the Chinese have existed side by side for centuries, but for some reason suddenly the problem of an independent Uygristan has appeared now, and most importantly, not a single terrorist act has been recorded in the XUAR over the past 4 years. How can it be? Well, either we believe that there is such a gigantic, colossal number of concentration camps on the territory of the XUAR hidden from the Internet and satellites, one million people are sitting in concentration camps so that they cannot be seen from space (I think that just like the Chinese wall, it would be quite possible to distinguish so many concentration camps from satellite images), or something happened in Xinjiang’s politics that the number of terrorist attacks dropped — attention — to zero.
In fact, a very important thing happened — the power in the XUAR changed. Komsomol members and Shanghai people, in particular, the head of Xinjiang, Nur Bekri, and the Xinjiang party secretary from the Shanghai group, Zhang Chunxian, were replaced by Xi Jingping’s people. They were replaced by Shohrat Zakir and Chen Quanguo. The latter is a defendant in American sanctions, the first member of the Politburo (sounds almost like an award — «member of the list of American sanctions» Chen Quanguo). They came to power in 2014 and 2016, respectively, and since then, extremist activity has completely stopped in Xinjiang.
What does this mean? Besides that there is a factor from below, i.e. real differences between the Chinese and Muslims, a huge misunderstanding between them, there was also a factor that it was the regional Komsomol-Shanghai power that contributed to the separatism of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the creation of a large-scale, I emphasize, a large-scale extremist movement there. The Chinese themselves are already openly talking about this, that in the leadership of the XUAR Education Committee there were people who allowed extremist slogans, statements, texts in textbooks, conniving — at least conniving, at most directly participating in this extremist activity — the appearance of separatist sentiments among students in Xinjiang. These are the so-called two-faced officials, with whom Chen Quanguo fought, which is credited to him. He is a native of the PLA, the former leader of Tibet from 2011 to 2014, the [ex-]head of Henan province.
He destroyed a group of so-called two-faced officials of the XUAR, who contributed to the creation of the East Turkestan movement. If we look at the biography of Shohrat Zakir, he is the grandson of [Kaur] Zakir, a Xinjiang communist with great ties with the USSR, one of the fifteen founders of the Xinjiang party committee after the liberation of the XUAR by PLA. His grandfather was part of three communists, among whom was Mao Zedong’s brother, Mao Zemin, the former head of the state bank of Jiangxi province, and another Chinese communist, who were executed by a local Chinese militarist. That is, the current head of Xinjiang, the XUAR chairman, is the hereditary grandson of the Red Uyghur (let’s call him that), who is also loyal to the USSR and the new [Chinese] government in XUAR.
These are the two new leaders who have eradicated these [extremism] issues. But who led and who created this movement, the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan, and when? If we turn to the facts, the movement appeared in 1992, immediately after the events in Tianyanmen Square, when Komsomol members came to power in many regions [of China]. Nur Bikri, under which this movement for East Turkestan flourished in the XUAR, now sentenced to life imprisonment — it was under him that a large-scale Uyghur uprising in 2009 in Urumqi was allowed, large-scale riots, several thousand people suffered, several hundred died according to various sources, curfew was introduced in the XUAR.
I.e. all the events that brought the [Xinjiang] problem to the international level took place under Nur Bikri. He became Prime Minister in 2007 and held this post until 2014. Nur Bikri was appointed to this position under the Komsomol pro-American Secretary General Hu Jintao. In general, it is surprising when the head of a region [of China] outlived one general secretary and held the post for two more years after the appearance of another general secretary. What is Nur Bikri famous for? It is the fact that he was the head of the Komsomol organization of Xinjiang University, the head of the center of the extremist movement Kashgar, one of the leaders of Kashgar and in 2007, in the middle of the reign of Hu Jintao, headed the XUAR. It was under him that the movement [of East Turkestan] flourished, all terrorist acts [took place] and so on.
Simultaneously with the active growth of Nur Bikri’s political career, the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan was created in 1992, then it was called the National Congress of East Turkestan, the first capital of the congress was Istanbul, which is not surprising — Turkey is very supportive of this movement, those who support Pan-Turkism are very supportive of the Uighurs. Subsequently, its head, Rebiya Kadeer, a notorious woman, mother of eleven children, moved to Washington and is now in the United States. She appeared precisely in the democratization movement in China that [eventually] led to Tianyanmen. She is a representative of a very large Uyghur clan of textile merchants — textile production is generally the essence of Xinjiang, — in 1987 she entered the government of Xinjiang and became a delegate of the PPCC in 1992.
I.e. the future head of the separatist movement, in fact the real leader of the Xinjiang autonomy, came into power together with [the events on] Tianyanmen, with the Komsomol movement, and acted very actively — no one touched her — until 2000, when she was imprisoned for 2 years under a very serious article «undermining national security», kept in very good conditions. After Condoleezza Rice’s visit [to China], she was released, emigrated to the United States and in 2007 she met with George W. Bush.
So, we understand that in the 90s and 2000s the movement [of East Turkestan] was created and actively developed. In 1998 it was renamed the East Turkestan National Center. As a result of active development, the movement reached its maximum by 2010, the apogee was the Uyghur uprising in 2009, which took place de facto with the connivance of Nur Bikri.
Subsequently, Nur Bikri was very carefully removed from Xinjiang under Xi Jingping, he was appointed head of energy management — the newly created especially for him, as a very authoritative Xinjiang Komsomol member, department. He was under the patronage of another Komsomol member, Vice Premier Han Zheng, who headed the Komsomol organization of Shanghai, and is now Li Keqiang‘s deputy. By the way, the last meeting of Han Zheng was with one of the leaders of Turkmenistan on the export of oil and gas. For taking bribes, Nur Bikri was sentenced on December 2, 2019 to a very disproportionate life sentence. Typically, for bribes, high-ranking officials [in China] are sentenced to between 10 and 15 years in prison. Nur Bikri received a life sentence. Obviously, this leader has some other accusations that have not been voiced.
All this gives us an understanding that the East Turkestan movement emerged along with the Tianyanmen movement, was de facto supported from above by the [then] leadership of Xinjiang, and its growth coincided with the rise of Democrats in the United States, when two Republicans in a row were replaced by Democrat Bill Clinton — US elections were held in December 1992, inuaguration took place in January 1993. Nevertheless, the powerful movement for the independence of Xinjiang coincided with the powerful movement for the independence of Tibet, emerging with the rise to power [in the US] of democratic leaders. And now we understand that this movement [of East Turkestan] is renewing.
Some of the elites of Uyguristan are on the side of the Chinese government (below we will talk about why this is so), some of the elites are betting on the Americans, specifically on the US Democratic Party, although the US Republican Party also has its own interests in the XUAR. I.e. there are pro-American Uyghurs, there are pro-Chinese Uyghurs. Why is this so? What are the prospects for Xinjiang? There are two great perspectives.
There is an opinion that the Uighurs have nothing to do with the Taliban, have nothing to do with ISIS. This is a wrong opinion. A huge number of Uyghurs fought on the side of ISIS, supported the opposition, the al-Nusra front, in the civil war in Syria, most importantly, the Uyghurs were those inhabitants of Central Asia, whose hands China fought against the USSR in Afghanistan. It is known that China [then] supplied the Mujahideen with more weapons than all the Western countries put together, and with the hands of the Uighurs, Uyghur advisers, China operated on the territory of Afghanistan.
The Uyghurs have very close ties with Afghanistan, in the first civil war of 1992-2001 the Uyghurs fought on the side of the Taliban, in the 2001 war in Afghanistan they also fought on the side of the Taliban, and even the Pakistani government’s war for the so-called Waziristan in northern Pakistan, the Uyghurs fought on the side of Waziristan.
It is obvious that the Taliban movement, the East Turkestan movement, ISIS — all these are political organizations that have arisen at the same time, and in the event of a huge mess in Central Asia — we are talking about the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, and the complete seizure of control by the Taliban — the Uighurs will simply become eastern flank of the Taliban. There is an obvious risk that hostile extremist elements that want to create a new Islamic caliphate in Central Asia, Khorasan, will unite with each other, will be coordinated, perhaps from the same center, will be financed with the same money (perhaps there will even be some competition for funding). It is obvious that the Uighurs of East Turkestan will join the huge movement of the Taliban, the remnants of ISIS, and various extremist forces in Central Asia. In Pakistan, we are talking not only about Waziristan, but also about other movements in the south of Pakistan — for example, Balochistan. All these forces under the control, overseen by the US Democratic Party, will be ready to organize a huge civil war on an area of several million square kilometers, which will threaten primarily China, or maybe primarily Russia, and secondly, China — it is difficult to understand who they will threaten more, but it is obvious that their pressure and influence will be enormous.
For the Uyghur people, there is a choice between a big civil war, an Islamic caliphate, great autonomy as a result of this bloody war, and support for China, the pro-Chinese position of the Uyghurs. That is, on the one hand, the possibility that a huge Islamic caliphate, Khorasan, will be created, in which the Uyghurs will play a very large role along with the Taliban, on the other hand, the Uyghurs have a completely different perspective — if we look at the Great Silk Road, in fact, a project of global control of China over the world, then we will see that in the center of this Silk Road is the XUAR. The idea is that as China approaches Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Pakistan, Iran, the Middle East, the heart of this project will be located in XUAR, and the Uyghurs will receive the status of integrators, the status of a center of intercivilizational dialogue between the Chinese and the Middle East, between Chinese and Pakistanis, between Chinese and Russians, etc. It is there [- in XUAR -] that the heart of this project is being created.
Of course, when choosing for the Chinese-speaking Uyghurs in support of the incorporation of Uyguristan into the PRC, the arguments are obvious. Indeed, as a result of the implementation of this project, it is the Uighurs who will receive a huge influence, much greater than now. This lies on the other side of the scale [, being an alternative to extremism].
Based on the results of this analysis, it will become clear why the United States is fighting so hard for the independence of the Uyghurs, for a civil war, for a huge conflict that will interrupt all this development. We can understand both those and other Uighurs. There is a huge war for Eurasia, and the people of Xinjiang will also be at the heart of this war.
Before talking about who this huge civil war will consist of, it is worth returning to the topic of who, in the West’s idea, should stand under the banner of Khorasan. It is worth recalling that the West has declared a cotton war on China. If we look at the statistics of what is the role of Xinjiang in this cotton war, we will see that no less than a quarter of all cotton production in the world comes from Xinjiang. This is a huge amount, and if we look at the role of Xinjiang in China’s cotton production, we will see that at the end of 2019, 84% of all cotton in China came from Xinjiang. More than half of the rural population of Xinjiang is cotton growers, they were employed in this industry, and the blow that the West is trying to inflict on this industry is a blow that is designed to recruit all the impoverished Uyghurs, thrown out of production, into the army of East Turkestan. We are talking about 3-4 million Uyghurs — about half of the entire Uyghur population is at risk after the start of this cotton war.
There is talk of forced labor, the conditionally counted million prisoners, and so on. It is obvious that the cotton war is being waged not just as an economic blow to the PRC as a whole — we know that the textile industry, along with the restaurant industry, suffered the most after COVID, — but as an attempt to create a hotbed of instability in the XUAR and recruit 3-4 million people into the army of East Turkestan. The most interesting thing is that there have already been precedents — Xinjiang’s rebellious movements have always emerged after the decline of the cotton industry. It is a very important fact that before the [Russian] revolution of 1917 Xinjiang was essentially a cotton province of the Russian Empire, over 60% of cotton was imported to Russia from Xinjiang, i.e. Russia was the main buyer of this cotton. After the revolution, they stopped buying cotton, and this automatically led to very negative socio-political phenomena in Xinjiang. Now the same card is being played when these cotton growers from civilians must turn into mujahideen. Western policy is aimed at this. When you prohibit Xinjiang cotton, you prohibit the peaceful life of the Uyghurs.
In this situation, India wins. India is China’s second largest competitor in the production of cotton and textile products. Of course, there is Bangladesh and Pakistan nearby, but the West is growing China’s competitor in textiles in the person of India, this lies in the general policy of the West to replace China with India. The blow to Xinjiang cotton is a very powerful benefit to Indian textile producers.
But this does not limit the importance of the Xinjiang project. We have already noticed that Xinjiang is a land transport corridor of the Chinese Silk Road to all countries of Eurasia, including Europe and the Middle East. Of course, Russia has a large share [in this project], but it is clearly premature to expect that the Trans-Siberian Railway will completely replace sea traffic. In order for the TSR to replace sea traffic, it is necessary to increase its throughput 100 times. Not 10, but 100 times. This is not yet discussed. The real transport arteries that will save China after the [possible] naval blockade [from the West] will pass through Xinjiang.
This has already happened with the Chinese communists. Why was Mao Zedong’s brother in the Xinjiang government? Because there, in Urumqi, there was a connection with the revolutionary Soviet bases. If now we cut off [the delivery possibilities through] Burma — we understand that now there is a civil war in Burma, — by blocking oil and other transport corridors from the Indian Ocean to China, then Xinjiang, along with Russia, remains the only [accessible] corridor [for the delivery of goods]. We understand that the Western Europe-China highway, which passes through Kazakhstan and the XUAR, is the most likely route to be loaded during the [possible] naval blockade.
The transport role of Xinjiang can hardly be overestimated. This is the most important point for which the West wants to strangle Xi Jingping, and we see that the [West’s] pressure [on China] is connected with this. But besides transit and cotton, there is another, new role for Xinjiang, which emerged after the establishment of Xi Jingping’s rule in Xinjiang — this is the role of Xinjiang as a global — attention — center of bitcoin production. After Elon Musk’s statement, we all know that Xinjiang is the center of bitcoin production, but we do not know how big it is. Well, about 36% of new bitcoin mining is in Xinjiang. Moreover, mining has grown from 14% to 36% in 2019 alone.
Xinjiang is considered by some forces in China as a platform for global mining, the production of bitcoin. There are versions according to which bitcoin is an alternative, shadow currency of the global economy of China, which can be comparable to the volume of an open, white economy. One way or another, Xinjiang is also a place of bitcoin production, along with Inner Mongolia, which accounts for 8% of bitcoin production, Sichuan with its 17% and Yunnan province, which accounts for 8%.
Thus, the world mining depends on the situation in Xinjiang, and if a civil war breaks out there, it significantly brings down the price of bitcoin. For example, why shouldn’t the coal mines become an object of sabotage and terrorism by the East Turkestan movement? It’s quite real. We can already see that the first war for bitcoin, which used to be a war over gold, oil and diamonds, is flaring up in Xinjiang, thus bringing the traditional cotton region of Central Asia into the center of the world’s high-tech development. By the way, after the incident at coal mines in Xinjiang, the hash rate fell by 35% in one day and bitcoin began to collapse from 64 thousand to 30 thousand dollars.
Why coal, what does Xinjiang have to do with it? The fact is that China is not only a country with gigantic coal consumption, but also the country with the largest illegal coal mining. A huge number of mines in China are illegal, they are simply not recorded in any way. It is not known how many really illegal mines operate in China, and if the mine is illegal, you will not check how much coal it ships to the CHP, plus this is also illegal electricity generation. Of course, it requires additional study how much [energy] falls on the production of bitcoin in Xinjiang, but [the fact is that] illegal coal mining leads to the production of illegal energy at the thermal power station, which is used for mining. This is also a very important point to consider.
In addition to providing transit, cotton and bitcoin in Xinjiang, this sparsely populated province of China accounts for a third of all uranium reserves and production. We know that China’s transition to low-carbon energy is largely associated with the atom, so uranium mining is important, it is all concentrated in one [Chinese] county of Ili, which is also a rather unstable region, and of course, in the case of Xinjiang’s autonomy — disconnection, separatism or civil war — all this will fall within under threat. I repeat, we are talking about a third of all uranium mining in the PRC. In addition to the fact that uranium is mined there, there are significant reserves of gold in Xinjiang. Xinjiang accounts for a very large share of gold production in the PRC.
After all that has been said, it is difficult to overestimate the importance of Xinjiang in contemporary Chinese politics, the politics of Xi Jingping. I think many of you have understood why the United States is gripping its teeth in the XUAR, why there is such a large-scale flurry of propaganda, which is often completely untrue.
Thank you very much.
Nikolai Vavilov, 23.05.2021 / Source.