Minsk: the coup failed, but it’s too early to relax

Минск: путч провалился, но расслабляться рано

In order to understand that something is being prepared in Belarus, one did not have to be particularly smart or have exclusive information. Banal logic dictated (I spoke and wrote about this) that in order to hope for success, the planned American operation against Russia should not have been limited to Ukraine’s attack on Donbass.

The Americans may not be highly intellectual, but (unlike their Ukrainian wards) they are able to generalize their experience.

The experience of 2014-15 shows that, even without the direct participation of regular Russian army (with limited support then still not very similar to a normal army of republican militias with equipment and «vacationers»), the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer catastrophic defeats at an enviable speed. Since Moscow made it clear that in the event of a Ukrainian attack, it would not show restraint, it made no sense to throw Ukraine into battle — it would have been erased into dust before the Americans had time to start implementing their plan.

The plan was also no secret to anyone. It was necessary to organize not just a Ukrainian-Russian war, but a war involving at least some members of the EU and NATO.

Poles and Balts showed willingness to take risks, but their participation had to be somehow justified by a legend. The Balts do not even border with Ukraine, and it would be difficult for the Poles to explain their campaign for help, while the participants in the Normandy format (France and Germany), who are also Poland’s senior comrades in the EU, were going to confine themselves to expressing concerns and appeals to mercy.

So, it was necessary to solve a double task: to give time to the Polish-Baltic limitrophes to get involved in the conflict, and also to provide them with a convenient platform and convincing motivation for this. The attempted coup in Belarus solved both problems.

Russia suddenly received another front. I draw your attention to the fact that the conversation in a Moscow restaurant irrefutably testifies to the fact that the conspirators did not believe that after the murder of Lukashenko, the power itself would fall into their hands. We are talking about the blockade of Minsk, the internment of several dozen leading politicians, the «symbolic» seizure of several buildings and the appeal on TV and radio. I do not think that everything would be limited to an appeal to the people of Belarus. In such cases, the conspirators always appeal to the world community and ask for help.

The putschists had no doubt that a significant part of the security forces would provide them with armed resistance. That is, a civil war will begin. Therefore, they tried to immediately decapitate this resistance, removing everyone who could centrally manage the resistance to the putsch. In addition, it was important for them that, while Russia realizes what happened and creates a new grouping of troops to help Belarusians in suppressing the putsch, the limitrophes would receive an official invitation to intervene and send troops. That is, so that not the Poles enter the country in which the Russian army is already located, but Russia reacted to the appearance of Polish troops in Belarus.

The military result would not have changed from this — the Russian army would have stopped where the Russian leadership deemed it necessary. But the Americans would get a political advantage in putting pressure on their obstinate Western European partners. Their interpretation of events would be as follows:

• the Belarusian people overthrew the bloody tyrant;

• accomplices of tyranny unleashed a war against the rebellious people;

• the people asked the «civilized world» for help;

• all neighbors of Belarus (including Ukraine) immediately responded;

• only Russia sent an army to suppress a popular uprising, and at the same time began an aggression against the freedom-loving Balts and Ukrainians (in the confusion, no one would have begun to figure out who attacked whom in Donbass, Russia would be to blame).

It would be very difficult for Western Europeans to “disbelieve” this interpretation. Moreover, the Americans were clearly preparing to involve Georgia in the war as well. In Tbilisi, in recent weeks, there has been a lot of talk about the need to return Abkhazia and Ossetia by armed means.

The plan itself was pretty good. Formally, no one encroaches on Russian territory. The hostilities are unfolding in the territories of Belarus, Ukraine (Donbass) and Abkhazia with Ossetia, which the West recognizes as Georgia, while Russia considers to be independent states. The Russian army, instead of a concentrated strike on the Ukraine that attacked the Donbass, is forced to operate throughout the entire space from the Baltic to the Caspian, while it is not rubber. It is not just Ukraine that is involved in the war with Russia, but a whole coalition of six or seven countries. Moreover, they all claim that Russia attacked them. Whom should Paris and Berlin «believe» in this case?

Yes, Russia will win the war, but at the cost of a complete break with Europe, which is what the Americans want. And the losses, including economic ones, will be significant. While America does not mind the limitrophes.

The conspiracy is exposed by the FSB. Although the Russian special service claims that it worked in contact with Belarusian colleagues, I strongly doubt it. First, such cooperation should have been sanctioned by Lukashenko, and he is very unreliable in terms of information. He can go out to journalists on emotions and blurt out anything. Moreover, no one knows when and what wave of emotions will cover him.

Secondly, the story of the detention in the summer, on the eve of the Belarusian elections, of Russian citizens accused of preparing the overthrow of Lukashenko, showed that the KGB of Belarus is not the most reliable partner. You can talk about the Ukrainian provocation as much as you like. I readily believe that the SBU took part in the operation. But the arrests were carried out by the Belarusian KGB, and it also informed Lukashenko that these people came to overthrow him. There can be only two explanations: betrayal and unprofessionalism. It doesn’t matter which one is true: it would be too rash to entrust such partners with the fate of the operation on which the prevention of a European war depends.

The FSB announced the arrest and transfer of American visitors Zenkovich and Feduta to Belarus. But the FSB report does not say anything about the fate of the two Belarusian generals with whom the oppositionists were negotiating. This is logical. Americans shouldn’t know for sure whether the generals were real traitors or FSB bait.

In principle, before sending its emissaries to negotiations (to Moscow!), American intelligence should not just approach potential partners, but have a complete dossier on them and be one hundred percent certain that they are exactly who they claim to be. It is clear that the Americans did not run up to every Belarusian soldier with big stars shouting: “I am an American spy! I pay good money for the murder of Lukashenko!» At the very least, in order to strike up a conversation, they had to collect substantial compromising evidence on the object being developed. The organization of a military coup and the assassination of the head of state is too serious a matter for even a simple corrupt official to agree to it. Moreover, the death penalty has not been abolished in Belarus and is used.

So the generals had to be real. But the Americans cannot know for sure whether they remained loyal to them until the moment of their arrest or were recruited by the FSB long ago. Until they know this, it is difficult for them to make the right decision on the further fate of the prepared Belarusian putsch. They should have received a significant part of the information about the mood in the Belarusian army from the same generals. I do not think that the United States has so many sources among the high-ranking Belarusian military. It is this information that is key to the preparation of the putsch. After all, generals only give orders, which are carried out by colonels, captains and majors, and in the end — by ordinary soldiers. Moreover, if the latter may not know where and why they are being taken, then the officers should receive an explanation of the task. Therefore, for the putsch mechanism to work, the army must be seriously hit by the wormhole.

The Americans believed that the required number of traitors would be found among the officers of the Belarusian army. Now they need to understand: was their information accurate or was it disinformation carefully prepared for them by the FSB in order to lure their emissaries to Moscow?

Why is it important that the Americans do not know exactly about the role of the Belarusian generals? Because if a prepared putsch fails, there are two main scenarios for action:

1. Postpone the event indefinitely by preparing it from scratch.

2. To force events, starting the performance earlier than planned, before the authorities had time to unwind the whole tangle.

The Americans are interested in the second option. They have no time to wait. They are already losing to Russia and China on all fronts, and a new putsch cannot be prepared in a month.

After the failure of the color [revolution] scenario, which was implemented in Minsk in August-September 2020, it took the Americans more than six months to bring the force scenario into readiness mode. Now the underground asset will be partially knocked out, some of the traitors in power who have so far managed to maintain Lukashenko’s trust will come under attack. On the whole, Russia’s positions in Belarus will be strengthened. Lukashenko, of course, will not give up hopes of maintaining full independence, but he will not forget the West’s attempt to eliminate him (and his family) physically. His room for maneuver was significantly limited. Russia for him is now the guarantor of the preservation of not power, but his life.

Of course, all the traitors will not be caught, and the entire underground asset will not be jailed. This has never been done by anyone in history. But the possibilities of the Americans on the Belarusian territory will be significantly reduced. Therefore, they have to hurry.

And there is evidence that they are trying to force things. In particular, in addition to an attack on Russia along the entire perimeter of the western border, it was planned to destabilize the situation inside the country. Not surprisingly, Navalny’s supporters planned their actions on the same dates as the Belarusian putschists planned their coup. Moreover, on May 8-9, during the days of festivities, it would be easier for them to overestimate their numbers: there are a lot of people everywhere — it’s difficult to figure out who just went out for a walk and who is the oppositionist. And it is more convenient to arrange provocations in such a crowd.

But suddenly the opposition decides to schedule its rallies for April 21. We will not, they say, wait until half a million supporters gather, we will go out to protests right now. Though, apart from exposing the Belarusian conspiracy, nothing happened. But since the activities of all the conspirators were coordinated by the Americans, the caught Belarusians can provide material on their Russian colleagues as well. In addition, it is clear that the FSB already worked on them and, if it has already worked so much for Belarusians, one can only guess how much [material] it has worked out for Russians.

I would like to emphasize once again that the Americans were preparing simultaneous performances in Belarus, Ukraine, Russia and Georgia. Consequently, if the date of the rallies of the Russian opposition is shifted, it is highly likely that the United States has made a choice in favor of forcing events as much as possible. But, not knowing exactly what they can count on in Belarus, they cannot adequately plan their actions. Meanwhile, it was precisely the synchronization of the events that gave the United States hope for success. The scattered actions will be quickly suppressed by Russia without much consequences.

Moreover, another catastrophic defeat of the American allies in Ukraine will seriously undermine the already weakened authority of the United States. I am not even sure that under the current conditions Washington will be able to get an open action from Georgia. After all, Saakashvili is now chewing ties in Kiev, while the current Georgian politicians do not at all want to try on his experience of 2008. After all, it is one thing to get involved in a European war against Russia with the hope of success, and quite another to decide on suicide together with Ukraine. Meanwhile, without Belarus, imparting a European character to the conflict is problematic, and the United States is now not in control of the situation in Minsk, which they considered completely controllable on April 15th.

You can retreat, realizing that it will be problematic to gather forces for a second offensive. You can decide on an adventure that is almost guaranteed to end in a catastrophic defeat for Washington. Whether America will decide to raise rates again, we will find out within the next two weeks. It is now pointless and even harmful for the United States to delay until May 9th. The more time has passed since the exposure of the conspiracy, the less chances that significant forces of conspirators will be able to organize and act, avoiding the preventive measures of the special services.

In addition, people react to danger in different ways: someone (the minority) begins to defend themselves, and someone runs to surrender. There are also those who oppose their colleagues in the conspiracy, hoping that the authorities will not find out about their role. All three psychological types of conspirators are clearly visible in the conspiracy against Hitler on July 20, 1944. As soon as the conspirators found out that Hitler was still alive, most of them simply deserted, even the formal head, Field Marshal Erwin von Witzleben, went home. Some, like Field Marshal Gunther von Kluge, began to arrest their fellow conspirators.

Nevertheless, the danger has not yet passed. The last days of April will be critical not only for Belarus and Russia, but also for Europe and the world as a whole. The US may still try to slam the door loudly.


 

Rostislav Ischenko, 19.04.2021 / Source.

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